Pietrzak Roman aka Yosh
Mind map for trading, stocks, forex, investing
Last update: 2020-06-18
Started: 2013

This is collection of charts and thoughts about markets, trading, investing and speculation (stocks, bonds, forex etc.). This includes world-wide market data, but also stats and trends for social, people, health, religion and other subjects - anything that I find relevant to better understand geo-politics and geo-economy.
I drop here current, fresh data as well as view on historical things. The frequency of updates is irregular (from daily to monthly).
It's mostly charts, with not much comments.
It's updated ever few days, sometimes weeks.

2020: The Covid year

S&P 500 price vs Aggregate profit estimate (1990-2020):

Secular Bear and Secular Bull markets (nominal) against S&P 500 Valuations (Cape 10) and also real earnings.
From 1871 to 2020:

Buffet Indicator - Wilshire 5000 to GDP (to 2020):

Fed balance sheet vs S&P 500 with additional comments of Quantitive Easing and some "events" (from 2008):

S&P Earnings reversions vs financial recessions from 1936:

US: Rising share of companies with debt servicing costs that are higher than profits (1990-2020):

US Employment report, response rate in household survey by Deutsche Bank (2010-2020) and US employees count on nonfarm payrolls (with almost "v" recovery):

US Economy In Recessions - Negative GDP Growth (1948-2020):

US U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate (1994 - 2020):

US NFIB Small business optimism index (1975 - 2020):

US All employees Total Nonfarm payroll:

US Personal Spending Forecast:

If the historical relationship between labor and PCE holds up, and consumption continues to be the predominant contributor to GDP, we should not expect GDP to regain prior highs until 2025.

Some math around data

Value vs Growth:

30 Year Forward Annual Return From P/E Levels - 2D Chart:

2019: A bit older stuff

History of S&P bear markets (in percents):

S&P 500 Earnings Growth Rate Q4 2019:

S&P Rolling 20-year rolling real total return:

The source of the stock market rally is buybacks:

CEO Confidence Survey:

For The First Time In 6 Years, No Central Bank Is Hiking:

S&P technicals

Negative cash balances (margin debt reported by FINRA):

S&P Accelerated Trend [2019-10-16]:

S&P Buybacks:

S&P 2018-2019 technicals:

S&P 500 Trend Line Support 2007-2019:

S&P 500 Corporate Profits vs S&P Price, with some context - historical comparisons for 2007 and 2000:

US yield curve spread:

US market

Number of Hours of Labor needed to buy the S&P:

Stock market seasonality as for 2019-10-18:

80% IPO-s are now on negative earnings. The historical context on the chart "Percent of IPO-s on negative earnings":

Companies with the highest long term debt in US. Debt-to-equity ratio and size of the debt shown:

Fed assets vs Federal Funds Rate:

Corporations no longer share the wealth:

Global markets

Size of the global retirement savings gap, by 8 biggest countries:

Markets technicals - variety of charts

Global trends, economy, markets, world stocks, people, culture, religion

Generational wealth gap in US:

The World's Most Fragile States:

Stock market peaks by country:

Global debt by type:

Emerging markets growth:

2017 Net contributors to EU budget. Germany +12 B euros, while Poland -8 B euros:

People, culture, religion, health - trends, maps etc.

Predicted change in population in one generation's time:

STD (sexually transmitted disease) cases in US chart:

World religions detailed map by country:

General theory, education

Paradigm shifts - by Ray Dalio

Hedge fund stategies

Kondratieff Waves

Kondratieff Waves, Kondratieff Cycles, Kondratieff Disk

Historical data

Historical S&P return inflation adjusted - Updated 20190516

Historical S&P return inflation adjusted - Updated 20190407

Note: The green lines denote the number of years required to get back to even following a bear market.
It is worth noting the entirety of the markets return over the last 118-years occurred in only 4-periods: 1925-1929, 1959-1968, 1990-2000, and 2016-present)

Current data links


Secular Bear and Secular Bull markets (nominal) against S&P 500 Valuations (Cape 10).
From 1871 to 2019:

Buffet Indicator - Wilshire 5000 to GDP:

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